The Effects to Agricultural Market after Mr.Trump Won the Presidential Election

   According to foreign report on Nov.11, Mr.Trump winning the presidential election will benefit for agricultural market.  Now it is in better condition of weakened US dollars made by Trump’s winning compared with Hillary’s.
   During the election, US dollars dropped 2% and then narrowed to 0.5%.
   US exports will be more competitive due to weakened US dollars, because so many agricultural products will need to be exported.  It is estimated that by the end of this September, export trade volume reached to 12.7 billion dollars.  And the total volume is predicted to 13.3 billion dollars in this financial year.
  But whether the benefit from Mr. Trump will continuous or not is determined by his attitude toward dollar exchange rates.  He may also makes the agricultural reform directly.  Nowadays what farmers worry about is his long term trade policy.
 Mr. Trump spoke his mind upon the trade policy in the early stage.  He not only said that US should withdraw from WTO, but also expressed to abolish free trade agreement signed with Canada and Mexico.   
He suggested to impose tariff about 35% for importing goods from Mexico as well as 45% for China goods.
China is the biggest buyer for US agricultural products, and Mexico is the third.  That is to say, US will face the dilemma to find new buyers in order to avoid market over-supply of domestic agricultural market and price falls.
Nevertheless, it is in low possibility that China will not import US agricultural products.  At least it is sure in short term, because China will not find soybean substitute goods immediately.  Bean pulp is the main feed for pig raise in China.


From Boyidashi.com and translated by BOHC